Three Things (5/7)

Earnings in the Crosshairs

U.S. equity markets stumbled today as tariff-driven uncertainty continued translating into corporate guidance cuts. Ford and Mattel withdrew their financial forecasts, citing margin compression and global supply chain volatility. Ford warned tariffs could reduce its annual profit by $1.5 billion, while Mattel noted a $270 million hit and signaled plans to shift manufacturing away from China. Other household names—including Marriott, Clorox, and WK Kellogg—also flagged macroeconomic headwinds.

Markets didn’t take it lightly: the S&P 500 snapped a nine-day win streak, gold prices jumped, and volatility spiked. For investors, the message is clear—tariffs are no longer an abstract policy threat; they’re showing up in income statements and guidance withdrawals. When visibility fades, multiples compress. In a market pricing in resilience, these headlines suggest the margin for error is narrowing fast.

Uber Expands Its Cart

Uber has announced it will acquire an 85% stake in Trendyol Go, Turkey’s leading food and grocery delivery platform, for $700 million. The deal represents a calculated expansion into a high-growth, underpenetrated market as Uber looks to offset cooling demand in its core geographies. Trendyol Go processed over 200 million orders in 2024 and partners with more than 90,000 restaurants across Turkey.

The acquisition underscores Uber’s strategic pivot toward international diversification and operational leverage at scale. With its recent exit from a $950 million bid for Foodpanda in Taiwan due to regulatory friction, Uber’s focus appears to be shifting toward markets where digital infrastructure is accelerating—and regulation remains navigable. As DoorDash moves deeper into Europe, Uber is quietly building a stronghold at the intersection of growth, margin, and market share.

Forgiveness Fatigue

The Trump administration has unveiled sweeping changes to federal student loan forgiveness programs, including the elimination of the SAVE income-driven plan and narrower eligibility for Public Service Loan Forgiveness. The reforms disproportionately impact medical and dental trainees and reintroduce aggressive collection tactics such as wage garnishment and tax refund seizures.

For investors, the implications go beyond education policy. Tighter repayment rules mean reduced household liquidity—especially among millennial and Gen Z consumers who drive a growing share of discretionary spending and online financial flows. Slower debt relief translates to weaker demand across sectors like retail, housing, and consumer tech, and could dampen inflows into taxable investment accounts. In a rate-sensitive, consumer-driven market, policy shifts like this one are a headwind hiding in plain sight.