ResearchThree Things (4/16)

Three Things (4/16)

Apr 16, 2025

Nvidia Builds, and Coachella Borrows

Nvidia's Texas Transition

Nvidia is going all-in on U.S.-based AI manufacturing, announcing plans to mass-produce its new AI supercomputers in Texas. Dubbed “AI factories,” the facilities will be built in collaboration with Dell and Supermicro, with production kicking off later this year. This move is as much about geopolitics as it is about technology—amid rising tensions with China and growing demand for AI compute, bringing supply chains closer to home is both a competitive advantage and a national security play.

But this move is more than symbolic reshoring—it’s a strategic power play in the race to dominate AI’s next industrial era. By anchoring production in Texas, Nvidia is not only securing proximity to major cloud and hyperscaler clients, it’s also insulating itself from geopolitical flashpoints in Asia. More critically, this signals a deeper evolution in the company’s ambition: Nvidia is no longer content to be a supplier of parts—it’s positioning itself as the orchestrator of the entire AI value chain. In doing so, it’s not just building chips, but capturing both mindshare and market share in the infrastructure layer of the global AI economy. As AI becomes more deeply embedded in everything from national security to corporate strategy, controlling the stack—from silicon to system—is fast becoming the most defensible competitive edge.

Festival Finance

Nearly 60% of general admission ticket buyers for Coachella used “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) services to fund their attendance, according to newly released data. Coachella—long a symbol of millennial and Gen Z aspiration with its celebrity-packed crowds, designer desert fashion, and multi-day performances from global headliners—is more than a music festival, but this year, it’s also an economic bellwether. The growing use of BNPL to finance what is ultimately a luxury experience underscores how younger consumers are leveraging credit not just for essentials, but increasingly for access—to status, to culture, and aspirational lifestyles.

This marks a deeper behavioral shift: BNPL is fast becoming the default for non-essential purchases, even in categories once considered splurges. As these short-term loans seep into lifestyle spending, the line between financial innovation and consumer overextension grows increasingly thin. Rising delinquency rates across BNPL providers suggest that what once seemed like a frictionless way to boost purchasing power may now be quietly inflating a new kind of risk. If consumers are routinely borrowing to fund moments—not milestones—the modern credit cycle could be more fragile than it appears. The Coachella data doesn’t just reflect cultural trends—it signals that lifestyle debt may be emerging as the next systemic pressure point.

Back in Business

Wall Street’s top banks are back in stride, riding a wave of renewed market activity and macro uncertainty. Bank of America and Citigroup, both of which reported Q1 earnings yesterday, beat first-quarter expectations—powered by the old pillars of banking: lending and trading. For Bank of America, strength came from improved lending margins, the difference between what it earns on loans and what it pays out on deposits, and resilient consumer banking, where everyday borrowing and spending remain robust. At Citi, traders capitalized on surging activity in government bonds and currency markets, as clients adjusted portfolios in response to interest rate expectations and new trade tensions.

On Monday, Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter earnings that beat expectations, fueled by a surge in equities trading—where the firm earns revenue by buying and selling stocks on behalf of clients. Coupled with the strong results from Bank of America and Citigroup yesterday, the results suggest a broader trend: the big banks are rediscovering their footing not despite uncertainty, but because of it. In a market defined by shifting rate expectations and geopolitical risk, volatility is no longer just something to manage—it’s a profit driver. The ability to monetize turbulence is separating the banks merely enduring this environment from those thriving in it.

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